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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the field of foreign exchange trading, it is crucial for investors to make centrdom.informed decisions. On June 11, the foreign exchange market was affected by many factors and showed a centrdom.infoplex trend. The following is a review of the important positive and negative news that affected the foreign exchange market on that day.
In the United States, the chairman of the Atlanta Fed made hawkish remarks, saying that "rate cuts require more evidence of downward inflation." This statement strengthens the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will remain tight. According to the data, the US import volume plummeted by 16.3% month-on-month in April, the largest drop in history, reflecting the backlash effect of tariff policies on the US economy, putting the US dollar index under certain pressure in the short term. But strong employment data have supported the dollar again, with the number of initial unemployment claims last week lower than expected, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains stable, which poses a potential positive for the dollar.
Although the final value of manufacturing PMI in May announced by the euro zone has improved slightly, it is still below the boom and bust line, indicating that the manufacturing industry continues to be sluggish and brings downward pressure to the euro. At the same time, there are differences within the European Central Bank on whether to further loosen monetary policy. The market expects the European Central Bank to increase its easing efforts in the future, which makes the euro trend relatively weak.
In terms of Sino-US economic and trade relations, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 to 13, during which he will hold the first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the United States. The meeting has attracted much attention. If positive results can be achieved, it will ease global trade tensions, benefit risky assets, suppress the US dollar's safe-haven demand, and boost non-US currencies. On the contrary, if negotiations are not progressing smoothly, it may intensify market risk aversion and push the US dollar torise.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict showed signs of escalation, Russia launched a large-scale retaliatory attack on Ukraine, and NATO also announced the launch of the largest arms expansion plan since the Cold War. The escalation of geopolitical tensions has heated up market risk aversion. Traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are expected to benefit from it. Currencies with high correlation with geopolitical risks, such as the euro, may be impacted by uncertainty in the European economy.
The central bank policy has a key impact on exchange rate trends. The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been the focus of the market, and recent speeches by many officials suggest that the Federal Reserve remains cautious on the issue of interest rate cuts. Although the market generally expects the Fed to take rate cuts in the future to stimulate the economy, officials stressed that more substantial evidence of a downward inflation will be needed to make decisions, which will enable the US dollar's interest rate advantage to maintain in the short term and provide some support for the US dollar exchange rate.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged, and the yen continues to be suppressed by the low interest rate environment. At its meeting on June 10, the People's Bank of China asked "structural tools to support technological innovation and green transformation", and the market expects special re-lending quotas to expand. Although this is mainly aimed at the adjustment of the domestic economic structure, it will also affect the expectations of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent. With the advancement of the internationalization process of RMB, the influence of the RMB in the international foreign exchange market has gradually increased, and the central bank's policy orientation plays an important role in the stability and trend of the RMB exchange rate. If the policy stimulates economic growth with significant effect, it will provide positive support for the RMB.
In terms of the crude oil market, the sharp increase in US crude oil inventories and concerns about demand, and WTI crude oil plummeted 4.2% to US$67 per barrel. The sharp decline in crude oil prices poses negative negative for the currencies of oil exporters, such as the Canadian dollar, ruble, etc. For oil importers, falling oil prices have reduced import costs, are conducive to economic growth to a certain extent, and have potential support for their currencies. But at the same time, the decline in oil prices may also reflect expectations of slowing global economic growth, which in turn will have a negative impact on risky currencies.
The gold market, in the context of increasing global uncertainty, investors' safe-haven demand has made gold more attractive. Spot silver hit a 13-year high of $36 per ounce, with an increase of 24% this year. The rise in gold and silver prices reflects the market's concerns about the economic outlook and drives funds into safe-haven assets; on the other hand, it will also affect investors' allocation of currency. Generally speaking, when gold prices rise, the US dollar's safe-haven demand may be diversion to a certain extent, putting certain pressure on the US dollar exchange rate, and may provide some support for currencies such as the Australian dollar that have a high correlation with gold.
The foreign exchange market is full of uncertainty under the influence of the interweaving of various positive and negative news. Investors need to pay close attention to the dynamic changes in these news, centrdom.infobine technical analysis, and make investment decisions with caution.
The above content is all about "【XM Forex】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". It was carefully centrdom.infopiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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