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The US dollar index maintains a volatile situation, and the market continues to pay attention to Sino-US trade negotiations and US CPI

Post time: 2025-06-11 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar index maintains a volatile situation, and the market continues to pay attention to Sino-US trade negotiations and the US CPI." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday, and the US dollar rose on Tuesday, helped by U.S. officials said trade negotiations were going well, although there was no clear consensus on reaching an agreement the day after the negotiations continued. On the other hand, the pound fell against the dollar as UK employment data showed weak labor markets. In addition to trade negotiations, investors are also paying close attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the upcoming June 11th. The speech of the European Central Bank chief economist Lian En during the day; British Chancellor Reeves announced his multi-year spending plan; U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent testified before the House centrdom.infomittee.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.96. Investors felt anxious and the US dollar index fell back as chief negotiators from the United States (US) and China held trade negotiations in London. The dollar has been hit hard in the past few months as new economic policies and unstable tariff announcements implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump has skeptical of the credibility of the dollar. Judging from the daily line structure, the technical form of the US dollar index shows weak consolidation characteristics. The 200-day moving average (104.0782) flattened, the 50-day (100.1037) and the 100-day moving average (106.8489) remained downward, and the slope of the 50-day moving average was steeper, indicating that the medium-term bear pattern has not changed. The current deviation between the exchange rate and the long-term moving average is 5%, and there is a need for technical repair.

The US dollar index maintains a volatile situation, and the market continues to pay attention to Sino-US trade negotiations and US CPI(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1437, and the euro/dollar remained stable on Tuesday, with investors awaiting the latest news on the U.S.-China trade negotiations and the release of the latest U.S. inflation data. Sentix investor confidence in the euro area improved in June, and the index turned positive for the first time this year. European Central Bank (ECB) officials spoke, and Janis Steurnaras said that stable EU (EU) policies attracted investors to the euro. Technically, the euro/dollar price movements indicate The upward trend continues, but so far, the buyer has failed to break through the 1.15 level, which will immediately expose the current year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.1572. The relative strength index of momentum (RSI) indicates that consolidation may occur ahead as buyers are resting. On the other hand, if the EUR/USD falls below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1331, the bears will step in and clear the path to challenge the 50-day simple moving average of 1.13 and 1.1281.

The US dollar index maintains a volatile situation, and the market continues to pay attention to Sino-US trade negotiations and US CPI(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3509, GBP/USD fell slightly on Tuesday, under pressure from UK wage and unemployment data significantly below expectations. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Wednesday, and GBP/USD traders will cope with medium-sized UK trade data later this week. Technically, GBP/USD has fallen from years-long highs, but GBP/USD buying remains strong. The pair consolidates in the short term around 1.3500 and continues to show a strong bullish trend with prices significantly higher than the 200-day index moving average (EMA) located near 1.2960.

The US dollar index maintains a volatile situation, and the market continues to pay attention to Sino-US trade negotiations and US CPI(图3)

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. India and the United States are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement

Indian government sources said that India and the United States have made progress, with negotiations focusing on market access to industries and some agricultural products, tariff cuts and non-tariff barriers. India and the United States are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of this month. Sources said the two sides discussed improving customs and trade Facilitation measures to increase bilateral digital trade, adding that “negotiations will continue” to allow for an early initial phase of a trade agreement. Officials added that the next phase of negotiations could deal with more centrdom.infoplex issues, with the goal of signing the first part of the bilateral trade agreement by September or October. One of the sources said India rejected U.S. demands for open markets on imports of wheat, dairy and corn, while offering lower tariffs on high-value U.S. products such as almonds, pistachios and walnuts. India also wantsAsk the United States to cancel the 10% benchmark tariff. However, the United States expressed its objection, noting that even the United Kingdom must centrdom.infoply with this provision in the recently signed bilateral trade agreement.

2. People familiar with the matter: US Treasury Secretary Besent becomes Potential for Powell's successor

More and more advisers inside and outside the Trump administration are pushing another person to serve as the next Federal Reserve Chairman: Treasury Secretary Scott Besent. President Trump said last Friday that he would appoint Powell's successor "soon." Powell's term as chairman of the Federal Reserve will end in May 2026. A small list of candidates being considered includes former Federal Reserve official Wash, who Trump interviewed for the Treasury Secretary last November, according to people familiar with the matter. But people familiar with the matter said Becent, who is pushing for the U.S. economy through centrdom.infoprehensive reforms in trade, taxation and regulation, is now one of the contenders for the position. The formal interview for the position has not yet begun, two people familiar with the matter said.

3. Brazil's inflation unexpectedly cools down. Traders lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts. Brazil's annual inflation rate in May fell more than expected, breaking the three consecutive months of upward trend before central bank officials met to decide whether to continue the aggressive interest rate hike cycle. Official data released on Tuesday showed consumer prices rose 5.32% year-on-year, while the median forecast for the survey was 5.39%. Monthly inflation rate is 0.26%. As a measure of market expectations for monetary policy, interest rate swap contracts expired in January 2027 fell by more than 11 basis points in early trading after inflation slowed beyond expectations. Investors have also lowered expectations for another rate hike in the meeting next week.

4. UK: Corporate outflow from London stock market is driven by pound exchange rate fluctuations, tax and pension policies

Latty, CEO of the UK Financial Conduct Authority, said that corporate outflow from London stock market is driven by pound exchange rate fluctuations, tax and pension policies, and "the huge scale of the US market", rather than its listing rules. "I haven't heard of this as a regulatory issue, and what I've heard is that it's related to what's happening in the UK, Europe, and even some other non-European capital markets, for a wider reason," Latie told the Special centrdom.infomittee of the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday. Latie's agency is working to overhaul the UK's listing rules to meet the Labor government's requirements for growth-promoting policies. Nevertheless, he stressed that the U.S. market is attractive to businesses with ambitions of global expansion.

5. The cooling of the British labor market increases the possibility of the Bank of England's interest rate cut in August. HSBC analyst Elizabeth Martins said in a report that UK employment data may turn the situation around, which will benefit the Bank of England's interest rate cut in August. Slower wage growth and rising unemployment rates have increased market pricing for such outcomes. Recent policies may lead wage growth in the opposite direction: new payroll taxes may reduce wage growth, while a rise in minimum wage may increase wage growth. The answer seems to be,The Bank of England has been too dovish so far. Even if May inflation data is weaker than expected, that is not enough to prompt Bank of England policymakers to cut interest rates next week.

Institutional View

1. Fitch: The depreciation of the US dollar provides room for some emerging market central banks to accelerate interest rate cuts

Fitch said that the price of Brent crude oil fell from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, which will increase economic and fiscal pressure on major oil exporters. The U.S. cuts in international aid have also increased the risks faced by some emerging markets. In contrast, the depreciation of the dollar has eased the burden on emerging markets holding US dollar debt and provided room for some emerging market central banks to speed up interest rate cuts.

2. Institutional survey: European economy is in high pessimism

A study released by the Boston Consulting Group on Tuesday showed that Europeans are becoming increasingly pessimistic about their own economy. In April this year, Boston Consulting conducted a survey of 16,000 consumers in nine European countries including Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Romania, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Overall, 54% of respondents were pessimistic about the domestic economy, up 7 percentage points from the July 2024 survey. Meanwhile, a quarter said they felt "bad" about their personal financial situation, up 3 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of the economy, consumers in the UK and France are the most pessimistic, with about 70% of respondents worried about the economic outlook. The most optimistic consumers are from Scandinavian countries, with only about one-third of them pessimistic about their own economy.

3. Deutsche Bank: The UK's labor market will continue to be weak

Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja said in a report that loosening in the UK's labor market will prompt the Bank of England to retract its restrictive monetary policy. He said the unemployment rate will rise further, higher than the Bank of England's modal forecast, and potential anti-inflation continues. The latest May data showed that employment fell by 109,000, painted a worrying picture of the worst decline in employment since May 2020. While the situation is not entirely pessimistic, the downturn in the labor market may intensify, he said. Deutsche Bank expects Bank of England interest rates to drop from its current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year before falling to a low of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar index maintains a volatile situation, and the market continues to pay attention to Sino-US trade negotiations and the US CPI". It was carefully centrdom.infopiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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