CPI may cool down unexpectedly, White House refutes the rumor of the candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman

On June 11, early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.03. On Tuesday, as Sino-US trade negotiations entered the second day, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 99 mark and finally closed up 0.04% to 99.046. U.S. Treasury yields fell first and then rose, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.48%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.033%. Spot gold once approached the $3300 mark during the session, and then continued to rise, reaching a high of $3349.1/ounce. The US market gave up all the gains in the day and finally closed down 0.09% to close at $3322.6/ounce; spot silver fell from a record high and finally closed down 0.63% to $36.53/ounce. International crude oil remained near its highs in the past seven weeks. WTI crude oil showed an inverted V-shaped trend, once standing above the $65 mark, then took a sharp turn and fell, finally closing down 0.14% to $64.47/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.09% to $66.72/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.03. The dollar index fell back as the chief negotiator of the United States (US) and China held trade talks in London, and investors were anxious. The dollar has been hit hard in the past few months as new economic policies and unstable tariff announcements implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump has skeptical of the credibility of the dollar. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully closes above the 99.20 level, it will move towards the resistance level in the 100.20–100.40 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1427. The euro/dollar remained stable on Tuesday, as investors awaited the latest news on the U.S.-China trade talks and the release of the latest U.S. inflation data. Sentix investor confidence in the euro zone improved in June, and the index turned positive for the first time this year. European Central Bank (ECB) officials spoke, and Janis Steurnaras said that stable EU (EU) policies have attracted investors to pay attention to the euro. Technically, the EUR/USD continued to try to close above resistance level 1.1410–1.1425. If the EUR/USD successfully closes above the 1.1425 level, it will move to the next resistance level, which is in the 1.1555–1.1570 range.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3498. The pound/dollar fell slightly on Tuesday, under pressure from UK wage and unemployment data that were significantly lower than expected. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Wednesday, with pound/dollar traders dealing with medium-sized UK trade data later this week. Technically, if GBP/USD closes below the 1.3500 level, it will move towards the nearest support level 1.3420–1.3440.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading, gold trading was around 3334.09. The current gold market is under the influence of multiple factors. Geopolitical tensions and a global economic slowdown provide solid bottom support for gold prices, but optimistic expectations of Sino-US trade negotiations and a strengthening dollar limit its upside potential. In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate in the range of $3250 to $3350 per ounce, waiting for further clarity in CPI data and trade negotiations. In the long run, if global economic uncertainty continues to intensify, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset will further highlight, but the easing of the trade situation may put pressure on it in the short term.

Technical: From the daily chart, spot gold is currently maintaining oscillation and consolidation near the middle track of the Bollinger band. The Bollinger channel narrows, indicating that the market volatility continues to centrdom.infopress, and the market has entered a "Bolinger Band squeeze" state, implying that the change window is approaching. The K-line centrdom.infobination is manifested as a continuous small solid candle line, with gradually narrowing the amplitude, a typical sideways pattern, and the price repeatedly tug-of-war around 3330. Bollinger Middle Track (3307.22) provides some support,The Bollinger upper rail and the lower rail are located at 3424.72 and 3189.73 respectively, forming a short-term range. The key support level can be seen at the 3250 mark, corresponding to the structure below the previous consolidation platform and Bollinger's middle track. If it falls below, it may cause further declines to reach the 3189 area. The upper resistance is concentrated at the two prices of 3380 and 3425, which are the Bollinger upper rail and the previous high overlap area. If the breakthrough is made, it is expected to open up room for upwards. In terms of MACD indicators, DIFF and DEA continue to bond, the bar chart oscillates toward the zero axis, lacks kinetic energy guidance, and the trend is not yet clear. The RSI indicator hovers around the 53 line and is also in a relatively strong neutral area, indicating that market sentiment has not yet reached an extreme.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 63.74. Oil prices fell on Tuesday but remained near a seven-week high, as markets waited for the outcome of trade negotiations to guide the direction. Analysts say a trade deal between the two world's largest economies could support global economic growth and increase oil demand, boosting oil prices.

From the daily chart, the recent trend is of great significance at the technical level. Prices rebounded above the 50% retracement level of the 2020 low to 2022 high gain, at $64.71. Although most of the price trends since 2021 have remained above this midpoint, crude oil prices have continued to close below this level since April until they are broken. Recovering this level strengthens the reason for short-term bullishness. Looking ahead, the next upward target is the downward 100-day moving average, currently at $66.28. This level has not been broken since April 2, so it has become a key test for further bullish momentum. If it successfully rises above this level, it may open the door for a more significant uptrend. On the downside, traders now view the $64.71 midpoint as a direct support level. If it cannot be maintained above this level, it indicates that the breakthrough has failed and may trigger a new wave of selling. Below that level, the focus will shift to May's volatility lows, between $64.14 and $63.57, which will be the next technical target.

Forex market trading reminder on June 11, 2025

①20:30U.S. unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in May

②20:30U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate in May

③20:30U.S. seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in May

④20:30U.S. unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in May

⑤22:30U.S. to June 6

⑥22:30U.S. to June 6

⑦22:30U.S. to June 6

22:30U.S. to June 6

22:30U.S. to June 6

22:30U.S. to June 6

⑦22:30U.S. to June 6

⑧The next day is 01:00U.S. to June 11The bid for 10-year Treasury bonds on the day - the bidding interest rate

⑨ The next day 01:00 US to June 11 10-year Treasury bonds on the day - the bid multiple

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