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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Official Website】: Unconditional talks!, Trump's shocking move!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday, during the Asian market, spot gold trading was around $3334.50 per ounce, and gold prices remained basically stable on Monday. Investors are paying attention to the meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian and European leaders, as well as the annual seminar held by the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hall this week; US crude oil trading was around $62.63 per bin, Ukraine increased its crackdown on Russia's energy infrastructure on Monday, and White House trade adviser Navarro said that India should ban the import of Russian crude oil.
The dollar rose on Monday, as U.S. President Trump chaired talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and traders reduced their bets on September rate cuts ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech on Friday.
Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday and then held talks with leaders from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the EU and NATO.
Trump said that the United States will "help" Europe provide security for Ukraine as part of the agreement to end the Ukraine war, and expressed hope that Monday's summit will eventually lead to trilateral talks with Russian President Putin, adding that he believes Putin wants to end the war.
Traders also looked at Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic policy workshop in Jackson Hall, Wyoming later this week to look for new signs of a possible rate cut next month. Powell previously said he was reluctant to cut interest rates because Trump's tariff policy is expected to lead to inflation rising this summer.
Traders have reduced their bets on interest rate cuts at the Fed's Sept. 16-17 meeting, after the July Producer Price Index (PPI) was released higher than expected. Consumer Price Index in July (CAfter PI) data showed that the transmission effect of trade tariffs was limited, traders once increased their bets on interest rate cuts.
Federal funds futures traders currently expect a 83% chance of a rate cut in September, which they briefly digested centrdom.infopletely last week.
Powell is unlikely to lock in the monetary policy path until he sees August data. "I think it's unlikely that he'll be clear after such a long period of caution," said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRWTrading. "I do think he has a clear entry point in the labor market," said Lou Brien. "If the labor market is weak, he can act immediately without waiting for inflation, which the Fed has historically done. They are tough on inflation. They react to the labor market. The last round of employment data was weaker than expected, and the correction was weaker than expected, which means more than one report." Data released on Monday showed that the U.S. homebuilder confidence index fell unexpectedly in August, falling to its lowest level in more than two and a half years.
Australian consumer confidence soared in August, with the Westpac index rising 5.7% month-on-month to 98.5, the strongest reading since early 2022. Westpac attributes the rebound to the RBA’s recent rate cut, noting that “long-term pessimism” in households may finally be centrdom.infoing to an end. Consumers have less concerns about their financial situation and are more willing to take a cautious and positive view of the economy.
While policy easing obviously helped, Westpac said the recovery remains fragile. Maintaining the rally may require further support from the RBA, although there is no urgency to cut interest rates again at the September 29-30 meeting. With inflation far within the target range and low unemployment, the board has room to wait and respond to upcoming data.
In general, Westpac expects the RBA to remain stable in September before cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points in November.
The eurozone trade surplus in goods in June was 7.0B euros, as moderate export growth was replaced by strong imports. Exports rose 0.4% year-on-year to 237.2B euros, while imports rose 6.8% year-on-year to 230.2B euros.
The entire EU cargo surplus narrowed to 8.0B euros. Exports remained stable at 213.7B euros, but imports rose 6.4% year-on-year to 205.7B euros.
Trade with major partners shows a very different trend. EU exports to the United States and China fell sharply, down -10.3% year-on-year and 12.7% year-on-year, while exports to the United Kingdom increased by 7.4% year-on-year.
At the same time, imports from the United States and China increased by 16.4% and 167% year-on-year, while UK shipments to the EU fell by -3.6% year-on-year.
Canadian inflation data is the key data released yesterday, and the overall CPI is expected to grow by 1.9% year-on-year in July, the same as in June. More attention may fall on core indicators, with the general forecast of CPI rising from 2.6% year-on-year to 2.7%. These data are at a delicate moment for the Bank of Canada, which has cut interest rates seven times since June 2024, but has remained stable at 2.75% in the past three meetings.
There are still differences in expectations for a rate cut in September. The Bank of Canada's review summary in July showed that the centrdom.infomittee was divided: Some members believed that sufficient easing had been implemented, while others stressed the weak economy and warned that further support might be needed if labour market conditions are weak. Uncertainty has made the market reluctant to firmly price upcoming moves.
Tariff risks centrdom.infoplicate the situation. Policymakers noted in July that U.S. tariffs and rescheduling of global trade are directly affecting inflation and broader growth dynamics. The latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged was made before Trump raised Canadian tariffs to 35%, but there are exemptions for CUSMA-compliant goods.
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