The US dollar is below $99, pay attention to US-China negotiations and UK employment reports

On June 10, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.96. On Monday, as investors closely monitored the Sino-US trade negotiations, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell, breaking the 99 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.21% at 99.01. The yield on the US Treasury fell slightly, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.478%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.012%. Thanks to the weakness of the US dollar, spot gold rebounded from the lows of more than a week that it hit earlier intraday, regaining all intraday declines, and finally closed up 0.47% to close at $3,325.7/oz; spot silver rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, finally closing up 2.17% to $36.76/oz. International crude oil continued its uptrend as hopes of easing trade tensions boosted demand outlook. WTI crude oil remained above $64/barrel and finally closed up 0.7% to $64.56/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.62% to $66.78/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.96. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly on Monday, falling from its rebound highs last Friday, but still above the key technical support levels of 98.351 and 97.921. This moderate decline reflects a temporary rest of the dollar momentum, and the market has turned cautious before the Sino-US trade negotiations open in London. As the Fed is not expected to have a major policy change and global growth risks are linked to trade tensions, the US dollar trend is expected to maintain range volatility to the bearish tone before inflation data is confirmed and trade issues are resolved. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 99.00 level, it willGo forward with the nearest support level, that is, in the range of 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1425. The euro/dollar rose on Monday, driven by optimistic market sentiment driven by high-level U.S.-China tariff negotiations held in the UK. This centrdom.infobined with the rate cuts that the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen as a "hawkish" have brought the pair to a break of 1.1400. In the euro zone (EU), the economic schedule is scarce, but ECB officials, including German Federal Bank president Joachim Nager, ECB's Isabel Schnabel and Kazimir, said they should remain flexible in dealing with interest rates. Nager said the ECB should remain flexible in response to interest rates, and Schnabel pointed out that the ECB should not expect continued decoupling from the Fed. Kazimir turned hawkish, saying the central bank was almost or near the end of the easing cycle. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above resistance level 1.1410–1.1425, it will move to the next resistance level 1.1555–1.1570.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3556. The pound was under pressure against the US dollar during the North American period on Monday, trading around 1.353. The market is digesting a series of upcoming UK local data and global macro risk events, and overall volatility may be amplified. The current market is focusing on the upcoming UK employment and GDP data this week. The UK's unemployment rate forecast rose to 4.6% in April, a high since July 2021, which may intensify market concerns about a slowdown in the UK economy. At the same time, the average annual salary growth rate is expected to remain at 5.5%, and salary stickiness may strengthen inflationary pressure. Technically, RSI is still in a mild area, so there is a lot of room for power in the short term. If GBP/USD remains above the 1.3550 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.3620–1.3640.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3317.34. Gold prices rebounded 0.4% on Monday, closing at around $3,325.45 per ounce. This wave of gold price rise was not only driven by the weakening of the US dollar, but also closely related to Sino-US trade negotiations, global economic uncertainty and the heating of inflation expectations. The market is light today, with investors waiting for Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to assess the health of the U.S. economy and predict the Fed's rate cut trajectory.

Technical: The slight rebound in gold prices stems from the two-day decline last weekend. Although no major bearish reversal signal has been shown, it has not reached a new high since the peak in April, indicating that the downside risk is rising. From a technical point of view, gold forecasts may shift from bullish to neutral or even slightly bearish, especially as risk appetite further improves. Of course, any weakness here does not mean the end of the long-term bull market. Currently, the support level of $3,300 is basically maintained. If this support level is Now that it is broken, the situation will become more interesting, as there is no direct support to focus on before approaching the trend line of $3,200. In other words, if it is decisively below $3,300, gold may fall $100 in a short period of time. By then, the low of $3,120 in mid-May will be the focus, and if it falls below that level, there is not much middle support before the key support level of $3,000. However, before being too excited about the potential for the decline, remember that the technology trend is still bullish Status, we should not rule out the possibility of gold prices rising again. Therefore, keep a close eye on resistance levels, as if the resistance is not held, it will fully demonstrate that the bears lack control. The first resistance to focus is near the low of $3340 ($3345), which was the low in the middle of last week, and Friday's upside break has cleared that level. These former support levels may now turn into resistance. After breaking through this area, $3400 will be the focus again, followed by $3430.

< h3>2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Tuesday, crude oil trading around 64.54. Oil prices hit a two-month highest on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar. At the same time, investors were waiting for news of trade talks in London, hoping that a deal could boost global economic outlook and stimulate demand. In addition, the weakening of the dollar brought some support to oil prices. The dollar index fell 0.3%, making oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Technical: The price is facing the key price of $65, which has become an important juncture many times. To some extent (if you have a little flexibly understanding of the definition), this is the neckline position of the head and shoulders bottom. Although the shadow of the first shoulder extends all the way to the head and only looks at the physical part, it is true to look at the head and shoulders bottom pattern. In addition, the first shoulder and the head form a double bottom pattern. From either pattern, the market seems to be doing everything possible to reverse the trend and achieve a good rebound. From the daily level, oil prices are still hindered by $65. If you break through this level strongly, it may open upward space to $66 and be expected to retest $71. On the downside, the psychological support level of $60 is crucial. If you fall below $60, it is more important to fall below the $58 moving average, which may re-induce long ranges from $55 and $49.Buy in the future. OPEC's willingness to manage supply around $55 reinforces bullish sentiment, especially as the market enters a peak summer demand season.

Forex market trading reminder on June 10, 2025

①14:00 UK three-month ILO unemployment rate in April

②14:00 UK May unemployment rate

③14:00 UK May unemployment rate

④15:00 Switzerland May consumer confidence index

⑤16:30 Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index

⑥18: 00 US May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

⑦ 00:00 the next day EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report

⑧ The next day 04:30 the US to June 6 API crude oil inventories

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