Wonderful introduction:
Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows of parting, and since ancient times, there have been sad songs about the moon. It’s just that we never understood it and thought everything was just a distant memory. Because without real experience, there is no deep inner feeling.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market centrdom.infomentary]: Gold, silver and oil continue to be under pressure, and the US government shutdown breaks a record." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 5, spot gold was trading around US$3,940 per ounce in the Asian market on Wednesday. Gold prices fell on Tuesday, affected by the strength of the US dollar and weakening market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the US federal government shutdown has exceeded historical records; U.S. crude oil was trading around US$60.35 per barrel. Oil prices closed lower on Tuesday, dragged down by the strength of the US dollar and concerns about the outlook for oil demand.
The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board on Tuesday, rising to a four-month high against the euro, mainly as policy differences within the Federal Reserve cast doubt on expectations of another interest rate cut this year. At the same time, global risk sentiment deteriorated, pushing investors to seek safe haven in the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar index exceeded the 100 mark for the first time since early August. The euro fell for a fifth straight session against the dollar, falling to $1.1483, its weakest level since August 1. USD/JPY fell slightly to 153.60 yen, although the yen and Swiss franc, both safe-havens, remained firm, but the yen itself was still hovering near eight-and-a-half-month lows. Market strategists pointed out that although the media often discusses the "death of the U.S. dollar," the U.S. dollar remains the most reliable safe-haven asset among investors during times of market turmoil.
This shift in market sentiment to risk aversion also echoes the decline in the stock market and the popularity of government bonds. In this environment, the centrdom.infomodity currency Australian dollar came under significant pressure, falling 0.8% to $0.649, as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and expressed caution about further easing.
Changes in Fed policy expectations are the core factor driving the strength of the US dollar. After last week's scheduled interest rate cut, Chairman Powell signaled that another move in December was not inevitable, causing traders to predict the probability of a rate cut in December from 94% a week ago.% dropped significantly to 65%. The continued shutdown of the U.S. government has led to a lack of economic data, making the different views of Federal Reserve officials on the current economic situation the focus of market attention.
Despite the recent strong performance of the US dollar, some analysts have expressed doubts about the sustainability of its gains. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the economic growth expectations of the United States and Europe have been raised simultaneously, and the growth gap between the two sides has been narrowing. This moderate global growth environment is not enough to support the continued strength of the US dollar.
In other currencies, the pound fell 0.9% to $1.3015 as the British finance minister emphasized the difficult economic background it faces such as high debt, low productivity and stubborn inflation.
As for the Japanese yen, although the Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged provided some support for it, its weak trend still prompted the Japanese Finance Minister to warn that the government was monitoring currency market dynamics with a high sense of urgency. The current yen exchange rate is gradually approaching the level that previously triggered market intervention by Japanese authorities in 2022 and 2024.
The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s September policy meeting showed that there were serious differences on the board of directors, and members were discussing the speed and timing of future interest rate increases. The nine-member board voted to keep the policy rate steady at 0.5%, rejecting calls from two hawkish members who wanted to raise borrowing costs to 0.75%. Discussions focused on balancing downside risks to growth with ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly from higher food prices.
Some members advocated early action. One hawk has called for a "somewhat regular" rate hike, citing improved data flows including corporate earnings and the Tankan business survey as valuable indicators to guide normalization. Another member warned that the costs of waiting too long to tighten policy were "gradually mounting" even if it would give the BOJ more clarity on the global outlook, especially from the United States.
However, most agreed that it would be better to wait for "more conclusive data" before considering another action. They noted that while conditions for tightening are gradually being met, taking action now could "surprise markets" and risk destabilizing financial conditions. Some have stressed that maintaining accommodative conditions is appropriate to support Japan's recovery as long as inflation expectations remain insufficiently anchored.
Another member stressed that uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic slowdown was a key reason to remain cautious, but acknowledged that purely based on domestic fundamentals, Japan may soon meet the conditions for another rate hike.
New Zealand’s labor market showed signs of further weakness in the third quarter, with total employment flat at 0.0% quarter-on-quarter, below expectations for a slight quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.1%. On an annual basis, employment fell by -0.6% year over year.
The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.2%, in line with forecasts and extending the full-year reading to above 5%. The last time the unemployment rate reached this level was in late 2016. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage pointsto 70.3%, indicating that some workers are leaving the active job market.
Wage growth also cooled, with profits across all industries increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating that labor cost pressures have eased.
The SNB appeared willing to maintain its stance after board member Petra Tschudin said current interest rates were appropriate given Switzerland's inflation outlook. In an interview with TeleZueri, she pointed out that the SNB's forecast puts medium-term inflation at a range of 0% to 2%, which is consistent with its definition of price stability.
“From this perspective, interest rates are as they should be,” she said, adding that the central bank’s stance remained well suited to the current situation. Chudin's remarks were interpreted as a signal that the SNB will keep its policy rate at 0% for the foreseeable future.
Chudin acknowledged that the global situation is changing rapidly, but said there was no reason to reintroduce negative interest rates. “The central bank will only deploy negative rates if necessary,” she said, “but based on current inflation forecasts, there is no need.
Elsewhere, Chairman Martin Schlegel reiterated that Swiss inflation should rise slightly in the centrdom.infoing quarters, although global growth remains under pressure from U.S. tariff action.
According to the New York Times, the Trump administration has formulated a number of military action plans against Venezuela, including direct strikes against the forces protecting President Maduro and possible actions to seize control of the country’s oil fields.
Trump: Republic. The party will approve all bills without lengthy debates.
The US government shutdown continues, and the 35-day record is about to be broken.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market centrdom.infomentary]: Gold, silver and oil continue to be under pressure, and the US government shutdown breaks the record." It is carefully centrdom.infopiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some contents in the article still need to be further discussed and studied in depth.